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The economic scenario is Asia is worth inspection which is house to some of the fastest growing economies, not to mention it also comprises of some severely battered economies in the SE region. But lets look at the two keenly watched heavy weights in the Asian region China and India which boasts of a huge consumer market coupled with fast paced growth and increased market reforms, thus attracting a lot of interest in the region. This interest is very significant given the economic gloom in the Americas and Europe battered by the slowdown, or should we call it a long awaited economic rationalization bringing back growth to realistic levels. So lets turn our focus away from the US and Europe and plunge into Asia which for most part being looked upon as the poorer part of the world now being looked upon by the US and Europe as the only saviors in their current distress. So lets have a look at some of the economic indicators of China and India and how they are doing.
China:
China is poised to grow at around 7.5% (real GDP) this yea given a robust growth of 7.9% in the first half year. So even though signs are getting stronger by the day of a weakening economy on a global basis which will take its toll on all the economies including China. But the strong investment and sales in amalgamation with decade long market oriented reforms have created a much robust financial environment in china. China also has a strong manufacturing base specially in Hardware and Semiconductors and advancing with rapid strides in Software, where currently the spotlight seems to be on its neighboring rival India.
India:
India growing at around 5.8% (real GDP growth being 5.2%) for FY01 is doing not so bad in my opinion, a claim which most experts might refute. Though it was a bad year, but worst being the slow growth in the last quarter for India which was a mere 3.8% (real) mainly due to slowing of some Industry segments like construction, mining added with declining domestic investment and retail.
Let's look deeper into India: Given the current spate of socio-political climate in India it is still a commendable job being carried out by the Federal Government, given its compulsion in having to form a coalition with regional parties having different ideologies, structure, focus and mind-set. But one of the areas China scores is the fashion in which it deals with state-owned enterprises. This is something where India has always lagged and continuos to do so with the dismal record on its dis-investment policies which is very taxing for the government and hurts the economy at large. Another factor to note is the lack of FDI in the country which is finding itself hard to cross the $3B mark even after the target being set was a mere $10B when compared to the exodus of FDI that is being raked in by China, though it is fair to say that the Chinese market started reforming from last two or three decades with US having a keen interest in them, eyeing a big Asian market for its product and did well to develop the nascent market with heavy FDI. US also favored China oriented monetary and economic policy in the region, which had a catalistic effect in turning it into the biggest and fastest growing economy in the region.
Also worth noting that India is a fast emerging IT Superpower, though its slice of earning is pegged less than 2% in a $500B Industry, but it sure has the potential and is well positioned to rake in a much bigger slice which will shape the course for Indian Economy in the 21st century.
So both the heavyweight Asian economy seem to grow at a healthy rate when the rest of them are fighting for survival and are in fact looking at them for support. What will be interesting to watch is will these heavyweights start to crumble with the increase in global economic woes or does it have, what it takes to lease a new life and provide the much needed support which the US and Europe are looking for.
More articles by Ramachandran Iyer
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- "India Speeding in on IT enabled services"
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